As always, all views expressed in this site is my personal opinion only. Not financial Advice
With Faceborg shares, along with other Tech shares up 6-8% today on something I can’t pin on, I’m declaring this as a classic bubble in formation as the FOMO factor along with mania very obviously increasingly takes hold. As mentioned in my previous post, If I were a short term speculator type who likes riding by the seat of their pants, yeah, I would probably look to go all in.
Also reaffirming view of the bubble scenario. COVID-19 was essentially only an interruption to the larger trend originally sensed…
Not planning to substantially change my current mix of investments, however will probably now look to offload some over valued holdings in the next month or two and then rebalance things. Currently, I see many stocks are valued far beyond any reasonable metric and strongly believe that we are in the midst of a forming classic bubble. Short term, I now expect shares, in particular, technology stocks, to shoot to the sky towards completely absurd levels. Long term, I now expect pain (should the optimism continue).
For longer term folk, who aren’t into thrills and speculating, we may just have to sit tight for a while longer. I believe personally it is fairly clear that things are now running on almost pure emotion / euphoria. Though again, who the flip knows?
The original bull trap assessment is well and truly dead I believe. If a down leg as part of a great depression type scenario were to have happened, it should have occurred by July and no later than the middle August. Coming to the view that COVID-19 was a mere interruption to the previously assessed larger trend.
The financial markets from many accounts appear to mostly now be sentiment (emotionally) driven and would not be at all surprised to see Asset prices continue to drive higher as a result of the FOMO affect (before possibly abruptly pulling back), helped along by Federal Reserve support and other interventionist (as opposed to classic free market) policies.
The ‘Efficient Market’ disciples can argue blue in the face that the markets are forward looking and the market is factoring in that things will drive back to normal before we know it, but this argument simply isn’t stacking up for me… at all.
I see a forming Technology bubble, driven by the likes of TSLA whose prices are being driven far beyond what facts, fundamentals and underlying data could ever justify.
While this certainly seems like a classic bubble with the usual tell tale signs including Taxi drivers talking about their gains in Property + stocks, and phases such as ‘Permanently high plateau’ + ‘This is a new paradigm!’ being banded about (i.e this time being “Modern Monetary Theory”), these bubble signs and anecdotes have been going on for an extraordinary long time, considerably longer than what would have normally occurred in a text book bubble. In fact, I’d go as far as to say that I feel the last secular bull run from 2009 to today is highly unusual.
Nothing can be said for certain as all I can see is that much of the information coming out to date is simply too poor to base any meaningful longer term decision making off of (have long held the view that Economics as a discipline is in disrepute), and that the markets in my view have most certainly been interfered with.
Current personal investment focus is towards NZ Farm Land where prices on average have not shifted a huge amount over the last decade (See Farm land price Graph at interest.co.nz and REINZ Rural + Lifestyle property data). How one might be able to partake in this may be through funds such as the Booster Private Land and Property Fund, however, the types of properties they appear to cover are rather limited. In regards to other investment related thoughts… Continue reading “Unusual Economics”→
Apparently when someone appears as deactivated in one’s friends list, this may not always be the case and can sometimes mean they’ve been thrown into Facebook Jail. Usually the first thing I noticed when a friend has their account deactivated (voluntarily or not) is that their profile picture has disappeared and then when you click on the friend’s profile, this message comes up…
Have had some friends over the years mentioning they were blocked without any sort of warning and it has taken ages, sometimes a month before they are allowed back on. Often they show up as being deactivated in my friends list.
This is a timely reminder that we shouldn’t rely solely on Facebook, run by a single for-profit company, as our sole means of staying in contact with Friends and Family, ever.
Remember, you aren’t the customer here (you don’t pay anything financially towards using Facebook), you’re the product being milked for your personal data.
I have been hearing more and more of these anecdotes and in behoves that people ensure they maintain a separate means of contact, least you end up like this guy mentioned in the Elliot Advocacy article, who has been unable to ever get his account back.
As an aside, a mass concerted movement off of Facebook I strongly feel is long past overdue. I would also even go as far as to state there is perhaps a moral obligation for the more tech inclined among us to lead the way and make the effort to make ourselves available on other (preferably federated, decentralized) platforms and gradually remove our dependence on Facebook for the purposes of staying in contact with friends and family.
Update: 11th August 2020 – New community transmission cases discovered. Heading back in to partial lock down.
I feel Ashley Bloomfield’s (NZ’s Director General of Health) concerns are valid. Feeling the pulse in general, I am sensing…
An up tick of sentiment against the counter measures in general, including against the prospect of lock downs and mask wearing in New Zealand, particularly on the more conservative side of the political spectrum.
People not getting tested or otherwise refusing a test when showing respiratory symptoms or when otherwise directed to do so by their doctor.
A general feeling that most people have become unduly complacent, prematurely patting ourselves on the back and living like the Virus won’t ever come back.
The thing I feel is that all it takes is one case to come undetected into the community and can possibly see this whole situation go up in flames like a tinderbox.
Update: 1st August 2020 – The Agent rang thanking me and mentioned it was given to someone in Ngāruawāhia intended to be distributed by local children for a local letterbox drop (possibly as part of a fundraiser I believe). Still strange where it ended up though.
Box of about 1,500 Real Estate flyers left under a tree in a ditch at the Waterworks Dam on Hakarimata Trail. I really don’t understand why anyone would go to the trouble of hiking in a box load of glossy flyers, then leave it under a tree all alone. Very weird and odd…
Initially though it was gear or supplies for track maintenance and/or weed control, but seemed really weird to keep it in a cardboard box, so peered through the opening.
Took the box out of the reserve and dropped it off to Lugtons (Hamilton based Real Estate agency). While I was initially hesitant to touch it, It didn’t appear to be used to transport/hide drugs or any other nefarious activity, and I did not think the colourful flyers made for healthy fertilizer hence the reason to remove it.
In hindsight… Could be as innocuous as someone wanting extra weight to hill train with but simply aborted the idea halfway with the intention of picking the box back up upon coming back down (but never did or otherwise forgot).