Stream of Consciousness Week 25th May 2020

Stream of conciousness and other personal thoughts garnered throughout the week and which will be added to as the week rolls on. These thoughts are unrefined, unquantified, unverified, and raw. Any of these may be either be edited, deleted or otherwise spawn out into it’s own separate post…

  • Walked Pae O Te Rangi Farm Summit, looping back via the Disc Golf Course. Fairly short walk of approximately 2 hours return. Track is not marked on any of the Topomaps I can see, however, was present on the Kauri Die Back map as being an open track. Open Tracks PDF Auckland Council.
  • You know why people are saying the COVID Tracing QR codes ain’t working? Because there are two systems which are branded so similarly (with the yellow stripes), no wonder people are complaining when they use the official COVID-19 NZ Tracer app, they get an error. See both the official NZ COVID Tracer app developed by Rush Digital for the Ministry of Health NZ and then Simple Trace developed by a separate company called Springload.
  • Easy and cheap credit I feel is eroding the value of working. Seems the days of actually earning your keep and then using your hard-earned money to say buy a place of your own is now getting further and further out of reach of people. The pathways are disappearing. We are rewarding rampant speculation, supporting zombie corporations that should have gone under decades ago, investment into non-productive assets and further deepening the wealth divide.

Older Stream of Conciousness thoughts can be found here.

 

 

Stream of Consciousness Week 25th May 2020

Stream of Consciousness Week 18th May 2020

Stream of conciousness and other personal thoughts garnered throughout the week and which will be added to as the week rolls on. These thoughts are unrefined, unquantified, unverified, and raw. Any of these may be either be edited, deleted or otherwise spawn out into it’s own separate post…

  • Huntly Bypass was apparently opened on early March 2020. Only discovered it last night 17May2020 when coming home where I found that the Expressway continued on after Taupiri. The Weekend just past has been the first weekend on Covid-19 alert level 2 (Previously, interregional travel was not permitted)

Older Stream of Conciousness thoughts can be found here.

Stream of Consciousness Week 18th May 2020

Stream of Consciousness Week 4th May 2020

Stream of conciousness and other personal thoughts garnered throughout the week and which will be added to as the week rolls on. These thoughts are unrefined, unquantified, unverified, and raw. Any of these may be either be edited, deleted or otherwise spawn out into it’s own separate post…

  • As a paying customer of Spotify, it appears this doesn’t stop them from handing quite a bit of my personal data off to Facebook. Have to admit. I get a tad annoyed when I pay for things yet still have personal information data-minded the sh*t out of and then given away to a privacy invading Advertising and Analytics company like Facebook.
  • (Fri 8th May, 10:14 pm NZST) Uneasy that I’ve independently arrived at a forecast that aligns with many financial commentators. Traditionally in the past, it often indicates my crystal ball is wrong. Thats being the case, we may very well see the S&P500 Sky rocket tomorrow morning contrary to common wisdom at the release of a horrible employment situation / jobs report tomorrow, in which case it will be confirmation that the financial markets have completely decoupled from fundamentals, distorted by excess liquidity and quantitative easing.

Older Stream of Conciousness thoughts can be found here.

Stream of Consciousness Week 4th May 2020

Bull Trap Warning still in force (currently)

Update: 6th June 2020 – The Bull trap assessment, as a prelude to a sustained bear market, is increasingly looking shaky with the current short term bull market likely to challenge previous highs. Longer term Secular Sideways market view, with large bull and bear cycles, still stands.

The S&P 500 is still behaving in a way that signals a possible (rather than probable) bull trap. Again, nothing can be said for certain and this assessment is very much certainly subjected to change and re-evaluation on a dime.

Main concerns at the moment is the inherently delayed corporate and economic reporting (including unemployment rates) where the full of effects of the measures behind CoVid-19 may not be fully realized and reported on until a few months down the track. The effect and global reaction so far has been sufficiently deep as to invoke a long-lasting change in the way we go about our lives going forward. At the moment, my feeling is that the latest bull leg (given the unexpectedly large magnitude and severity of the preceding fall was certainly to be anticipated) has mis-priced the effect of the measures surrounding CoVid-19 I feel.

Laying out the possible scenarios in a very broad and general way for my own edification… Continue reading “Bull Trap Warning still in force (currently)”

Bull Trap Warning still in force (currently)