Stream of Consciousness Week 25th May 2020

Stream of conciousness and other personal thoughts garnered throughout the week and which will be added to as the week rolls on. These thoughts are unrefined, unquantified, unverified, and raw. Any of these may be either be edited, deleted or otherwise spawn out into it’s own separate post…

  • Walked Pae O Te Rangi Farm Summit, looping back via the Disc Golf Course. Fairly short walk of approximately 2 hours return. Track is not marked on any of the Topomaps I can see, however, was present on the Kauri Die Back map as being an open track. Open Tracks PDF Auckland Council.
  • Bull trap warning assessed previously earlier in the month I would say is showing signs of weakening (more optomistic scenario), however still exercising caution at this stage. Longer term outlook remains a secular sideways market
  • You know why people are saying the COVID Tracing QR codes ain’t working? Because there are two systems which are branded so similarly (with the yellow stripes), no wonder people are complaining when they use the official COVID-19 NZ Tracer app, they get an error. See both the official NZ COVID Tracer app developed by Rush Digital for the Ministry of Health NZ and then Simple Trace developed by a separate company called Springload.
  • The above point at #2 was posted about 3 days ago and that my concern earlier in the month regarding my crystal ball being wrong (because all the analysts were coming to the same conclusion as mine) was a valid one. It looks like excess liquidity may be successfully propping up the markets. I don’t find safety in numbers.
  • What the end game is regarding this wall of liquidity inflating stuff, I do not know. All I know is that easy and cheap credit (along with handouts) is eroding the value of working. Seems the days of actually earning your keep and then using your hard-earned money to say buy a place of your own is now getting further and further out of reach of people. The pathways are disappearing. We are rewarding rampant speculation, supporting zombie corporations that should have gone under decades ago, investment into non-productive assets and further deepening the wealth divide. (Looks like the only way to reverse this is a bloody revolution?)
  • Dare I say it, the 2009-2018 Secular bull market was an unjustified one. One that was completely fuelled by cheap and easy credit, and completely turned on it’s head the notion that saving is good.

Older Stream of Conciousness thoughts can be found here.

 

 

Stream of Consciousness Week 25th May 2020

Stream of Consciousness Week 18th May 2020

Stream of conciousness and other personal thoughts garnered throughout the week and which will be added to as the week rolls on. These thoughts are unrefined, unquantified, unverified, and raw. Any of these may be either be edited, deleted or otherwise spawn out into it’s own separate post…

  • Huntly Bypass was apparently opened on early March 2020. Only discovered it last night 17May2020 when coming home where I found that the Expressway continued on after Taupiri. The Weekend just past has been the first weekend on Covid-19 alert level 2 (Previously, interregional travel was not permitted)
  • Wouldn’t be surprised to learn that Melbourne based Thrifty Car Rental Franchise, Lawrence Vic Pty Ltd, is possibly at it again posting Fake reviews. Link to suspected fake reviews. Total of 4 reviews, 3 of them are for Thrifty locations operated by the same franchisee.

Older Stream of Conciousness thoughts can be found here.

Stream of Consciousness Week 18th May 2020

Stream of Consciousness Week 11th May 2020

Stream of conciousness and other personal thoughts garnered throughout the week and which will be added to as the week rolls on. These thoughts are unrefined, unquantified, unverified, and raw. Any of these may be either be edited, deleted or otherwise spawn out into it’s own separate post…

  • (14May2020 2:00 p.m. NZST) Bull trap warning still in force (at the moment). Have Liquidated some more positions last week purely as a risk reduction measure with the acknowledgement that I will quite possibly miss out on capital appreciation. Still feeling the pulse and making sense of it all. Not yet convinced the underlying economic issues have been sufficiently stabilized to consider substantive new investments for the long term. Though as always, anything can change on a dime.
  • There are the occasional times I do desire to do things alone in my own space, at my own pace and in my own time.
  • Discovered that the Brave browser for iOS on my iPad was detecting 4 “Fingerprinting methods” for this website. Went to download the Brave browser for PC Desktop to investigate further and see what scripts were causing the warning.  The PC desktop version came up with nothing – ‘0’ Fingerprinting methods (very helpful /s). Further scurrying around, found my barebones Test WordPress installation also came up with the same result. Laid down a fresh WordPress installation and it came up with the same result again. Will have to investigate later. Seems the iOS version of Brave is picking up some “responsive layout” theme scripting as having these Fingerprinting methods.

Older Stream of Conciousness thoughts can be found here.

Stream of Consciousness Week 11th May 2020

Stream of Consciousness Week 4th May 2020

Stream of conciousness and other personal thoughts garnered throughout the week and which will be added to as the week rolls on. These thoughts are unrefined, unquantified, unverified, and raw. Any of these may be either be edited, deleted or otherwise spawn out into it’s own separate post…

  • I am concerned that our immune systems aren’t been given a work out any more and may consequently be weakened by the time we come out of lock down.
  • As a paying customer of Spotify, it appears this doesn’t stop them from handing quite a bit of my personal data off to Facebook. Have to admit. I get a tad annoyed when I pay for things yet still have personal information data-minded the sh*t out of and then given away to a privacy invading Advertising and Analytics company like Facebook.
  • (Fri 8th May, 10:14 pm NZST) Uneasy that I’ve independently arrived at a forecast that aligns with many financial commentators. Traditionally in the past, it often indicates my crystal ball is wrong. Thats being the case, we may very well see the S&P500 Sky rocket tomorrow morning contrary to common wisdom at the release of a horrible employment situation / jobs report tomorrow, in which case it will be confirmation that the financial markets have completely decoupled from fundamentals, distorted by excess liquidity and quantitive easing.

Older Stream of Conciousness thoughts can be found here.

Stream of Consciousness Week 4th May 2020

Bull Trap Warning still in force (currently)

Update: 6th June 2020 – The Bull trap assessment, as a prelude to a sustained bear market, is increasingly looking shaky with the current short term bull market likely to challenge previous highs. Longer term Secular Sideways market view, with large bull and bear cycles, still stands.

The S&P 500 is still behaving in a way that signals a possible (rather than probable) bull trap. Again, nothing can be said for certain and this assessment is very much certainly subjected to change and re-evaluation on a dime.

Main concerns at the moment is the inherently delayed corporate and economic reporting (including unemployment rates) where the full of effects of the measures behind CoVid-19 may not be fully realized and reported on until a few months down the track. The effect and global reaction so far has been sufficiently deep as to invoke a long-lasting change in the way we go about our lives going forward. At the moment, my feeling is that the latest bull leg (given the unexpectedly large magnitude and severity of the preceding fall was certainly to be anticipated) has mis-priced the effect of the measures surrounding CoVid-19 I feel.

Laying out the possible scenarios in a very broad and general way for my own edification… Continue reading “Bull Trap Warning still in force (currently)”

Bull Trap Warning still in force (currently)

Stream of Consciousness Week 27th April 2020

Stream of conciousness and other personal thoughts garnered throughout the week and which will be added to as the week rolls on. These thoughts are unrefined, unquantified, unverified, and raw. Any of these may be either be edited, deleted or otherwise spawn out into it’s own separate post…

  • bull trap warning still in force (for now). Discussed in another post. Currently Looking cautiously at the US unemployment figures due out on the 8th May (U.S. time). As with all view expressed in this blog, views and sentiments may change on a dime.
  • I’m running out of space on my Main VPS (hosting NUI.NZ). The consolidation of KAHA into NUI.NZ is going to have to be deferred.
  • Franchising as a business model I feel is increasingly on the rocks in Australia, and this was before CoVid-19 ever hit.

Older Stream of Conciousness thoughts can be found here.

Stream of Consciousness Week 27th April 2020