I have a confession to make, I do not understand present day Economics or financial markets.
To be honest, all I personally see is perhaps the biggest global asset bubble to ever grace the face of this planet. Many assets across the board appear to be valued well in-excess of their intrinsic value and have seemingly been like this for a lot longer than would ordinary be in a so called a bubbly situation.
I feel that the current Global Asset boom is now at a stage that it is difficult to stop by way of monetary policy. The ship I feel has sailed long ago and we may need to just let it run it’s course now. I have a feeling in the short term, a number of other asset classes may begin inflating away from fundamental value as basic human extinct of greed, dare I say it, takes an ever larger role in decision making.
My greatest fear is that If and when something of sufficient magnitude does manage to spook the market, there may at first be a slow quiet trickle to the exit (though interspersed with mini shocks or spikes downwards) which may then gradually culminate in to a rapid acceleration into this monstrous, unstoppable domino effect as credit gets squeezed, stops get triggered, lines of credits are recalled and people are forced to unwind in a devastating chain reaction sequence of events. It is one that may last for a decade or more and drive asset prices the other way to possibly insanely low levels… May be in effect, “The Great Depression II”
Who knows what and when? How long is a piece of string? Financial forecasting and predictions seem to be as about as useful as Tits on a Bull. There is too many factors… factors that are hard if not impossible to measure and quantify and therefore, it’s difficult to even really give any sort of usable ball park assessment. Any of a gazillion factors could have a significant contributing effect on it’s own to anything.